World pork production shows contrasting dynamics across regions. In Europe, supply stabilization is accompanied by declining prices due to heightened competition among countries and weakened Chinese demand. In the Americas, the United States and Brazil report increased production and exports, while Canadian supply contracts despite a rebound in prices. In Asia, Chinese production is declining amid subdued consumption. However, other countries such as Vietnam and South Korea are experiencing growth despite facing economic and health challenges. Globally, competitiveness remains a key issue, exacerbated by persistently high production costs, albeit with slight relief.
Americas : Growth and resilience
The United States benefits from strong domestic and international demand, avoiding surpluses through dynamic exports to Mexico and East Asia. Domestic supply is increasing (+1.7% in pigs slaughtered over the first nine months of 2024 compared to 2023). U.S. pig farmers have also seen a rise in pork prices after two years of significant losses. However, commercial prospects are uncertain, particularly following the election of Donald Trump, which rekindles memories of past trade tensions.
In Canada, the closure of numerous slaughter facilities has forced farmers to export more live pigs to the U.S. Slaughter volumes have decreased by 4.8% year-on-year. Meat export opportunities are strong, with a robust rebound (+9.7%). Despite a slight decline in the sow herd, Canadian farmers benefit from historically high prices, supported by improved margins.
Brazil continues to solidify its position as a competitive leader. Despite spring floods affecting production, the sector shows remarkable growth in slaughter volumes (+1%) and exports (+6.5%), contributing to rising prices in a favorable market context.
Europe : Balancing competitiveness and structural challenges
In Europe, overall supply remains stable (+0.7% in slaughter volumes from January to August), but exports are hampered by competitiveness gaps compared to countries like the U.S. and Brazil. While pork prices remain above historical averages, they have been declining since summer, driven primarily by pressure from Northern European markets focused on improving international competitiveness. Inflation easing has spurred consumer demand recovery.
Spain and Denmark face overcapacity in slaughter facilities, and export opportunities are limited. A significant restructuring effort has helped rebalance the German market, but ASF (African Swine Fever) constrains growth. In France, the decline in herd size and the number of farming sites shows no signs of slowing.
Asia : Persistent economic and health challenges
In Asia, China continues to play a central role, although national pork production has declined by 1.4% (first nine months of 2024 compared to 2023). Domestic consumption remains weak due to economic uncertainties, and imports have dropped by 14%. This context has also pressured pork prices, limiting farm profitability. Conversely, other Asian countries are showing positive momentum. Pork supply is expanding in Vietnam and South Korea, supported by strong domestic demand. Imports have also grown significantly. However, health constraints persist.
Outlook for 2025
A slight decline in global production is expected in 2025. However, prospects vary widely across production regions. In the Americas, supply is likely to continue growing, driven by dynamic demand. In Europe, herd stabilization suggests a steady supply, although competitiveness remains a major challenge. Inflation easing in these markets will boost consumer demand. In Asia, Chinese production is expected to decline, unlike Vietnam and South Korea. Prospects for Brazil and Canada are promising, while uncertainties linger for the EU-27 and the U.S. regarding their access to the Chinese market. Health constraints remain a risk factor and a source of instability across global markets.
